Magical Mechanics

If you’re a fan of this blog, you’ve probably read my last post about the new SD-WAN magic quadrant that’s been making the rounds and generating discussion. Some people are smiling that this report places Cisco in an area other than leadership in the SD-WAN space. Others are decrying the report as being unfair and contradictory. I wanted to take another look at it given some new information and some additional thoughts on the results.

Fair and Square

The first thing I wanted to do is make sure that I was completely transparent with the way the Gartner Magic Quadrant (MQ) works. I have a very good idea thanks to a conversation with Andrew Lerner (@Fast_Lerner), who is the Research VP of Networking at Gartner. Andrew was nice enough to clarify my understanding of the MQ and accompanying documentation. I’ll quote him here to make sure I don’t get anything wrong:

In an MQ, we assess the overall vendors’ behavior and offering in the market. Product, service/support sales, marketing, innovation, etc. if a vendor has multiple products in a market and sells them regularly to the enterprise, they are part of the MQ assessment. Viable products are not “excluded”.

As you can see from Andrew’s explanation, the MQ takes into account all the aspects of a company. It’s not just a product. It’s the sales, marketing, and other aspects of the company that give the overall score for a company. So how does Gartner figure out how products and services? That’s where their Critical Capabilities documents come into play. They are focused exclusively on products and services. They don’t take marketing or sales or anything else into account.

According to Andrew, when Gartner did their Critical Capabilities document on Cisco, they looked at Meraki MX and IOS-XE only. Viptela vEdge was not examined. So, the CC documents give us the Gartner overview of technology behind the MQ analysis. While the CC documents are focused solely on the Meraki MX and IOS-XD SD-WAN technology, they are components of the overall analysis in the MQ that was published.

What does that all mean in the long run?

Axis and Allies

In order to break this down a bit further, let’s ignore the actual quadrants in the MQ for the moment. Instead, let’s think about this picture as a graph. One axis of the graph is “Ability to Execute,” or in other words can the company do what they say they’re going to do? The other axis is “Completeness of Vision.” This is a question of how the company has rounded out their understanding of the market forces and direction. I want to use this sample MQ with some labels thrown in to help my readers understand how each axis can affect the ranking a company gets:

So, let’s look at where Cisco was situated on those graphs. They are not in the upper right part of the graph, which is the “good” part according to what most people will tell you when they glance at it. Cisco was ranked almost directly in the middle of the graph. Why would that be?

Let’s look at the Execution axis. Why would Cisco have some issues with execution on SD-WAN? Well, the biggest one is probably the shift to IOS-XE and the issues with code quality. Almost everyone involved deploying IOS-XE has told me that Cisco had significant issues in the early releases. Daniel Dib (@DanielDibSwe) had a great conversation with me about the breakdown between the router code and the controller code a week ago. Here’s the first tweet in the chain:

So, there were issues that have been addressed. But is the code completely stable right now? I can’t say, since I haven’t deployed it. But ask around and see what the common wisdom is. I would be genuinely interested to hear how much better things have gotten in the last six months. But, those code quality issues from months ago are going to be a concern in the report. And you can’t guarantee that every box is going to be running on the latest code. Having issues with stable code is going to impact your ability to execute on your vision.

Now, let’s look at the Completeness of Vision axis. If you reference the above picture you’ll see that the Challengers square represents companies that don’t yet understand the market direction. Given that this was the location that Cisco was placed in (barely), let’s examine why that might be. Let’s start by asking “which Cisco product is best for my SD-WAN solution?” Do you know for sure? Which one are you going to be offered?

In my last post, I said that Cisco had been deemphasizing vEdge deployments in favor of IOS-XE. But I completely forgot about Meraki as an additional offering for SMBs and smaller deployments. Where does Meraki make the most sense? And how big does your network need to be before it outgrows a Meraki deployment? Are you chasing a feature? Or maybe you need a service that isn’t offered natively on the Meraki platform? All of these questions need to be answered when you look at what you’re going to do with SD-WAN.

The other companies that Cisco will tell you are their biggest competitors are probably VMware and Silver Peak. How many SD-WAN platforms do they sell? How about companies ranked closer to Cisco in the MQ like Citrix, CloudGenix, or Versa Networks? How many SD-WAN solutions do they offer? How about HPE, Juniper and Aryaka?

In almost every case, the answer is “one”. Each of these companies have settled on a single solution for SD-WAN or SD-Branch. They don’t split those deployments across different product lines. They may have different sized boxes for things, but they all run the same common software. Can you integrate an IOS-XE SD-WAN appliance into a Meraki deployment? Can you take a Meraki MX and make it work with vEdge?

You may be starting to see that the completeness of Cisco’s vision isn’t lacking in SD-WAN but instead how they’re going to accomplish it. Rather than having one solution that can be scaled to fit all needs, Cisco is choosing to offer two different solutions for SMBs and enterprises. And if you count vEdge as a separate product from IOS-XE, as Cisco has suggested in some of their internal reports, then you have three products! I’m not saying that Cisco doesn’t have a vision. But it really looks like that vision is hazier than it should be.

If Cisco had a unified vision with stable code that was integrated up and down the stack I have no doubts they would have been rated higher. When Cisco was deploying Viptela vEdge as the sole SD-WAN offering they had it was much easier to figure out how everything was going to integrate together. But, just like all transitions, the devil is in the details here as Cisco tries to move to IOS-XE. Code quality is going to be a potential source of problems no matter what. But if you are staking your reputation on moving everyone to a single code base from a different more stable one you had better get it right quickly. Otherwise you’re going to get it counted against you.

Tom’s Take

I really appreciate Andrew Lerner for reaching out regarding my analysis of the MQ. I will admit I wasn’t exactly spot on with the differences between the MQ and the Critical Capabilities documents. But the results are close. The CC analyzes Cisco’s big platforms and tells people how they work. The MQ takes everything as a whole and gives Cisco a ranking of where they stand in the market. Sales numbers aside, do you think Cisco should be a leader in the SD-WAN space? Do you feel that where they are today with IOS-XE and Meraki MX is a complete vision? If you do then you likely won’t care about the MQ either way. But for those that have questions about execution and vision, maybe it’s time to figure out what might have caused Cisco to be right in the middle this time around.

1 thought on “Magical Mechanics

  1. Pingback: Aaron's deploys CloudGenix SD-WAN after issues with Meraki - The KinBiz

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