There are days when IPv6 proponents have to feel like Chicken Little. Ever since the final allocation of the last /8s to the RIRs over four years ago, we’ve been saying that the switch to IPv6 needs to happen soon before we run out of IPv4 addresses to allocate to end users.
As of yesterday, ARIN (@TeamARIN) has 0.07 /8s left to allocate to end users. What does that mean? Realistically, according to this ARIN page that means there are 3 /21s left in the pool. There are around 450 /24s. The availability of those addresses is even in doubt, as there are quite a few requests in the pipeline. I’m sure ARIN is now more worried that they have recieved a request that they can’t fulfill and it’s already in their queue.
The sky has indeed fallen for IPv4 addresses. I’m not going to sit here and wax alarmist. My stance on IPv6 and the need to transition is well known. What I find very interesting is that the transition is not only well underway, but it may have found the driver needed to see it through to the end.
Mobility For The Masses
I’ve said before that the driver for IPv6 adoption is going to be an IPv6-only service that forces providers to adopt the standard because of customer feedback. Greed is one of the two most powerful motivators. However, fear is an equally powerful motivator. And fear of having millions of mobile devices roaming around with no address support is an equally unwanted scenario.
Mobile providers are starting to move to IPv6-only deployments for mobile devices. T-Mobile does it. So does Verizon. If a provider doesn’t already offer IPv6 connectivity for mobile devices, you can be assured it’s on their roadmap for adoption soon. The message is clear: IPv6 is important in the fastest growing segment of device adoption.
Making mobile devices the sword for IPv6 adoption is very smart. When we talk about the barriers to entry for IPv6 in the enterprise we always talk about outdated clients. There are a ton of devices that can’t or won’t run IPv6 because of an improperly built networking stack or software that was written before the dawn of DOS. Accounting for those systems, which are usually in critical production roles, often takes more time than the rest of the deployment.
Mobile devices are different. The culture around mobility has created a device refresh cycle that is measured in months, not years. Users crave the ability to upgrade to the latest device as soon as it is available for sale. Where mobile service providers used to make users wait 24 months for a device refresh, we now see them offering 12 month refreshes for a significantly increased device cost. Those plans are booming by all indications. Users want the latest and greatest devices.
With the desire of users to upgrade every year, the age of the device is no longer a barrier to IPv6 adoption. Since the average age of devices in the wild is almost certain to be less than 3 years old providers can also be sure that the capability is there for them to support IPv6. That makes it much easier to enable support for it on the entire install base of handsets.
The IPv6 Trojan Horse
Now that providers have a wide range of IPv6-enabled devices on their networks, the next phase of IPv6 adoption can sneak into existence. We have a lot of IPv6-capable devices in the world, but very little IPv6 driven content. Aside from some websites being reachable over IPv6 we don’t really have any services that depend on IPv6.
Thanks to mobile, we have a huge install base of devices that we now know are IPv6 capable. Since the software for these devices is largely determined by the user base through third party app development, this is the vector for widespread adoption of IPv6. Rather than trumpeting the numbers, mobile providers and developers can quiety enable IPv6 without anyone even realizing it.
Most app resources must live in the cloud by design. Lots of them live in places like AWS. Service providers enable translation gateways at their edge to translate IPv6 requests into IPv4 requests. What would happen if the providers started offering native IPv6 connectivity to AWS? How would app developers react if there was a faster, native connetivity option to their resources? Given the huge focus on speed for mobile applications, do you think they would continue using a method that forces them to use slow translation devices? Or would they jump at the chance to speed up their devices?
And that’s the trojan horse. The app itself spurs adoption of IPv6 without the user even knowing what’s happened. When’s the last time you needed to know your IP on a mobile device? Odds are very good it would take you a while to even find out where that information is stored. The app-driven focus of mobile devices has eliminated the need for visibility for things like IP addresses. As long as the app connects, who cares what addressing scheme it’s using? That makes shifting the underlying infrastructure from IPv4 to IPv6 fairly inconsequential.
IPv6 adoption is going to happen. We’ve reached the critical tipping point where the increased cost of acquiring IPv4 resources will outweigh the cost of creating IPv6 connectivity. Thanks to the focus on mobile technologies and third-party applications, the IPv6 revolution will happen quietly at night when IPv6 connectivity to cloud resources becomes a footnote in some minor point update release notes.
Once IPv6 connectity is enabled and preferred in mobile applications, the adoption numbers will go up enough that CEOs focused on Gartner numbers and keeping up with the Joneses will finally get off their collective laurels and start pushing enteprise adoption. Only then will the analyst firms start broadcasting the revolution.
Nice post, Tom! Services not supporting IPv6 such as Skype is a problem for mobile apps. I think some SPs have solved it with 464XLAT but not all phones support that (iPhone). Like you mentioned, cloud hosting providers such as AWS seem to have shoddy or no v6 support while a lot of CDNs have full support already. It’s definitely time to provide equal support for your services over both protocols.
I think I’ve seen stats wher around 8% of Google searches are now done over v6. That’s huge compared to the 0-1% of only a few years back.
I do beleive that ipv6 turn over is well on its way. I would like to see web hosts to start offering v6 paths to their client content. Services like godaddy, 1&1 etc could be at at the forefront of this offering, resulting in more content available via ipv6 route.
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