The latest arcane polygon is out in the SD-WAN space. Normally, my fortune telling skills don’t involve geometry. I like to talk to real people about their concerns and their successes. Yes, I know that the gardening people do that too. It’s just that no one really bothers to read their reports and instead makes all their decisions based on boring wall art.

Speaking of which, I’m going to summarize that particular piece of art here. Note this isn’t the same for copyright reasons but close enough for you to get the point:

So, if you can’t tell by the colors here, the big news is that Cisco has slipped out of the top Good part of the polygon and is now in the bottom Bad part (denoted by the red) and is in danger of going out of business and being the laughing stock of the networking community. Well, no, not so much that last part. But their implementation has slipped into the lower part of the quadrant where first-stage startups and cash-strapped companies live and wish they could build something.

Cisco released a report rebutting those claims and it talks about how Viptela is a huge part of their deployments and that they have mindshare and marketshare. But after talking with some colleagues in the networking industry and looking a bit deeper into the issue, I think Cisco has the same problem that Boeing had this year. Their assurances are inconsistent with reality.

A WANderful World

When you deploy Cisco SD-WAN, what exactly are you deploying? In the past, the answer was IWAN. IWAN was very much an initial attempt to create SD-WAN. It wasn’t perfect and it was soon surpassed by other technologies, many of which were built by IWAN team members that left to found their own startups. But Cisco quickly realized they needed to jump in the fray and get some help. That’s when the bought Viptela.

Here’s where things start getting murky. The integration of Viptela SD-WAN has been problematic. The initial sales model after the acquisition was to continue to sell Viptela vEdge to the customer. The plan was then to integrate the software on a Cisco ISR, then to integrate the Viptela software into IOS-XE. They’ve been selling vEdge boxes for a long while and are supporting them still. But the transition plan to IOS-XE is in full effect. The handwriting on the wall is that soon Cisco will only offer IOS-XE SD-WAN for sale, not vEdge.

Flash forward to 2019. A report is released about the impact and forward outlook for SD-WAN. It has a big analyst name attached to it. In that report, they leave out the references to vEdge and instead grade Cisco on their IOS-XE offering which isn’t as mature as vEdge. Or as deployed as vEdge. Or, as stated by even Cisco, as stable as vEdge, at least at first. That means that Cisco is getting graded on their newest offering. Which, for Cisco, means they can’t talk about how widely deployed and stable vEdge is. Why would this particular analyst firm do that?

Same is Same

The common wisdom is that Gartner graded Cisco on the curve that the sales message is that IOS-XE is the way and the future of SD-WAN at Cisco. Why talk about what came before when the new hot thing is going to be IOS-XE? Don’t buy this old vEdge when this new ISR is the best thing ever.

Don’t believe me? Go call your Cisco account team and try to buy a vEdge. I bet you get “upsold” to an ISR. The path forward is to let vEdge fade away. So it only makes sense that you should be grading Cisco on what their plans are, not on what they’ve already sold. I’ll admit that I don’t put together analyst reports with graphics very often, so maybe my thinking is flawed. But if I call your company and they won’t sell me the product that you want me to grade you on, I’m going to guess I shouldn’t grade you on it.

So Cisco is mad that Gartner isn’t grading them on their old solution and is instead looking at their new solution in a vacuum. And since they can’t draw on the sales numbers or the stability of their existing solution that you aren’t going to be able to buy without a fight, they slipped down in the square to a place that doesn’t show them as the 800-lb gorilla. Where have a heard something like this before?

Plane to See

The situation that immediately sprung to mind was the issue with Boeing’s 737-MAX airliner. In a nutshell, Boeing introduced a new airliner with a different engine and configuration that changed its flight profile. Rather than try to get the airframe recertified, which could take months or years, they claimed it was the same as the old one and just updated training manuals. They also didn’t disclose there was a new software program that tried to override the new flight characteristics and that particular “flaw” caused the tragic crashes of two flights full of people.

I’m not trying to compare analyst reports to tragedies in any way. But I do find it curious that companies want their new stuff to be treated just like their old stuff with regards to approvals and regulation and analysis. They know that the new product is going to have issues and concerns but they don’t want you to count those because remember how awesome our old thing was?

Likewise, they don’t want you to count the old problems against them. Like the Pinto or the Edsel from Ford, they don’t want you to think their old issues should matter. Just look at how far we’ve come! But that’s not how these things work. We can’t take the old product into account when trying to figure out how the new one works. We can’t assume the new solution is the same as the old one without testing, no matter how much people would like us to do that. It’s like claiming the Space Shuttle was as good as the Saturn V rocket because it went into space and came from NASA.

If your platform has bugs in the first version, those count against you too. You have to work it all out and realize people are going to remember that instability when they grade your product going forward. Remember that common wisdom says not to install an operating system update until the first service patch. You have to consider that reputation every time you release a patch or an update.

Tom’s Take

The SD-WAN MQ tells me that Cisco isn’t getting any more favors from the analysts. The marketing message not lining up with the install base is the heart of a transition away from hardware and software that Cisco doesn’t own. The hope that they could just smile and shrug their shoulders and hope that no one caught on has been dashed. Instead, Cisco now has to realize their going to have to earn that spot back through good code releases and consistent support and licensing. No one is going to give them any slack with SD-WAN like they have with switches and unified communications. If Cisco thinks that they’re just going to be able to bluff their way through this product transition, that idea just won’t fly.